Q: The Chinese markets swooned again?
A: China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 8.3% to 3,670.40, falling for the third time in four sessions since the government tripled the stamp duty on trading last Wednesday.
The index has now fallen 15.3% from last Tuesdays all-time high of 4,334.92. Nevertheless, unlike the 8.8% plunge on Feb. 27 that prompted sell-offs in global markets, yesterdays drop caused only temporary declines in Asia. Boosted by U.S. economic data that beat expectations, Hong Kongs Hang Seng Index gained 0.6% to close at 20,729.59 while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (for H-shares) was up 0.4%.
Alec Young, Standard & Poors International Equity Strategist, wrote: “While the current Chinese sell-off will likely spark some healthy short-term profit taking in global markets, we doubt the ramifications will be more severe.
S&P expects the Chinese economy, which grew 11.1% in the first quarter, to remain strong as momentum builds leading up to the 2008 Summer Olympics. In addition, with an average annual income of only US$1,500 for the typical person, consumption is not the primary catalyst for Chinese economic growth.
Rather, growth is driven by export manufacturing, lessening the economys vulnerability to a stock market downturn. Lastly, reflecting the infancy of Chinas capital market infrastructure, the vast majority of Chinese wealth is invested in banks and real estate, not the stock market. S&P expects strong exports and ongoing domestic infrastructure expansion to lead to Chinese GDP growth of 10.2% to 10.6% in 2007.
As long as China’s real economy remains robust, we believe the Chinese sales of global multinationals will remain solid, allowing investors to largely ignore short-term volatility in local, and illiquid, Chinese stock markets. Until the economic data out of Beijing softens, S&P believes China will remain a bullish global equity indicator.”
Read Also: Translation Shifts
问：中国股市又暴跌了？
答：中国基准上海综合指数下跌8.3%，报3,670.40点，这是上周三政府将交易印花税上调三倍后四个交易日内的第三次下跌。该指数目前已由上周二的历史新高4,334.92点，急挫15.3%。不过，与2月27日暴跌8.8%引发全球市场抛售不同的是，昨日的下跌只引起亚洲市场的短暂下滑。在美国经济数据优于预期的推动下，香港恒生指数升0.6%，收报20,729.59点；恒生中国企业指数（H股）升
0.4%。
标准普尔国际证券策略师Alec Young写到：“眼下中国股市的抛盘或会引发全球市场出现健康的短线获利回吐，但我们认为后果不会变得恶化。标准普尔预料中国经济继第一季增长11.1%后，有望保持强劲的发展势头，并延续到2008年夏季奥运会。此外，由于人均年收入仅有1,500美元，中国经济发展的主动力并非来自消费，而是出口制造业，这就减少了经济受股市下滑所拖累的可能性。
最后一点，由于中国资本市场的基础尚不健全，国民财富大多集中在银行和房地产业，而非股市。标准普尔预料，由于出口强劲和国内基础施的不断扩张，中国2007年GDP有望增长10.2%至10.6%。只要中国的实体经济保持稳健，我们认为全球跨国公司在中国的销售就会保持旺盛，这样一来，投资者就不会在意当地的短期波动以及中国股市的流动性不足。标准普尔认为，在北京发布的经济数据减弱之前，中国一直都将是全球牛市的风向标。”