最好的投资是“五消”型投资

——关于从行业角度严格选股

李 剑

1. 消费独占(有顶尖的品牌)；

2. 快速消费(有重复的需求)；

3. 大众消费(有广阔的市场)；

4. 奢侈消费(有提价能力)；

5. 成瘾消费(有忠实的客户群)。

说明:

用了两个多月时间,把1990年以来A股和港股约四千家上市公司,按照中国证监会2001年4月公布的<上市公司行业分类指引>中的288个中类的行业区分,逐个检验每个行业中类长期持有的投资回报.进一步确认了：短期炒做无行业规律可依，可能有市值大小区分；但从长期投资而言,不同行业的投资回报有很大的差别.

这一工作的起因,是因为前些时候有朋友提问：“投资的关键在于选股。你提出了从产品角度严格选股的标准(产品独一无二、产品供不应求、产品量价齐升、产品永不过时），为什么不能概括一下从行业角度严格选股的标准呢？”这是一件苦差事。我不能贸然总结，必须象《投资者的未来》的作者西格尔一样做大量功课。

当然，下这么大力气还有自身的原因。我虽然极力推崇和坚定实践价值投资的理念和方法，但仍对持有最多八年之久的主要股票贵州茅台、张裕、洋河股份、云南白药、东阿阿胶、同仁堂科技、双汇发展、第一食品、蒙牛、李宁、耐克、爱尔眼科以及中石油、招商银行、浦发银行、港交所、中国人寿这样一个投资组合心存疑虑：我对那么多股票不屑一顾，会不会有重大遗漏？我的行业如此集中，我是不是选到了最佳的行业？在这些寥寥无几的行业中，为什么还是有些行业的回报远不尽人意？

这次深入研究，得到的数据很多，受到的启发也很多。我没有精力和能力设计大量表格来说明问题，还是抽象地概括性地分次表达一下自己的感受吧。相信有多年投资实践的朋友能够从这些句子里得到回味。

2010年11月12日记于上海

Investing in Top-Five Way

——On Selecting Stocks from the Industry Point of View

1. Exclusive consumption (top brands)；

2. Fast-moving consumption (repeated demand)；

3. Mass consumption (broad market)；

4. Luxury consumption (high price)；

5. Addicted to consumption (loyal customer base).

Caption:

In order to view the long-term benefits in different industries, I did a classification that was based on 288 category by ,published by CSRC April,2001.And the two months’ job has summed up about 4000 listed companies from A stock and HK stock market, which include those listed in 1990.

The result re-verified the rule: there is no regular pattern in short-term transaction, or maybe distinguished in market value; but the long-term investment does make a difference in different industries.

“The key is selection! You made a point on stock selection in product (unique, demand, fast-moving, growth in price& production), why not figure something out like industrial conclusion?” asked one of my friends, that’s why I did this tough job. I can’t do it hastily but a lot of work, just like Siegl, author of .

Well, there are other reasons for myself. I highly respected and committed practice the philosophy and methods in value investing, but there is still misgiving in my mind about the 8 years’ portfolio: mainly Moutai, Changyu, Yanghe, Yunnan Baiyao, Dong-E E-jiao, Tong Ren Tang Technologies, Shuanghui Development, First Food, Mengniu, Li Ning, Nike, Aier Ophthalmology, CNPC, China Merchants Bank, SPD Bank, HKEx as well as China Life,is there any significant omission when I pay not a single glance to so many stocks?

Did I make the best portfolio when my selection was so concentrated in a few industries? Further more, why are some of them showing far from what we expected?

I have collected a lot of data during the further research and gained many inspirations. So let’s just generally share what I sensed because I’m not able to design so many tables. Hope it helpful to those who have invested for years.

Nov.12th,2010 Shanghai

Li Jian